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Monday MLS Breakdown: Eastern Conference Preview
With the season less than two weeks away, Goal.com's Kyle McCarthy unveils his Eastern Conference preview.
Mar 9, 2009 11:41:07 AM
By Kyle McCarthy
Prediction making is a fool's errand.
I grimaced when I looked back at last year's Eastern Conference predictions and realized what yarns I had erroneously spun. D.C. United to win the conference title. Columbus to miss the playoffs. Claudio Reyna as one of the best players in the conference heading into the season. Sure, there are a few good shouts in there – Kevin Goldthwaite to rebound in 2008 and New England to struggle under the strain of the schedule – but I'm not heading to Vegas any time soon.
I mention this not just to make light of my season preview prognostication abilities, but in order to note the fluidity inherent during the MLS campaign. Seasons evolve as they progress. What looks certain in March can turn out to be decidedly different by November. In other words, there are no certainties to be had right now. At this point, predictions mean throwing stuff up against the wall and hoping something sticks.
That being said, it's time to fire away. I'll preview the Eastern Conference this week before evaluating the Western Conference next week.
Projected order of finish
(* - denotes playoff team)
1. Chicago*
2. Columbus*
3. Kansas City*
4. New England*
5. Toronto FC
6. New York
7. D.C. United
EC Semifinals: Chicago over New England; Columbus over Kansas City
EC Final: Chicago over Columbus
1. Chicago
Key arrivals: Baggio Husidic (M)
Key departures: Diego Gutierrez (D), Stephen King (M)
Key player: Cuauhtemoc Blanco (M)
Key question: Do the old and wise heads have one more inspirational year in them?
There won't be any excuses in Bridgeview. Not with Cuauhtemoc Blanco and Brian McBride running the offense and not with one of the league's stingiest back fours still in tact. Chicago assembled this team to challenge for MLS Cup last year and fell short in the Eastern Conference final at Crew Stadium. No shame in that, given the Crew's home dominance last season and McBride's mid-season arrival. But that won't be good enough in 2009 and the Fire should be able to go at least one round better. One massive caveat: the aging Fire must avoid injuries, particularly to McBride and Blanco.
2. Columbus
Key arrivals: None
Key departures: Brad Evans (M)
Key player: Guillermo Barros Schelotto
Key question: Can a different conductor create the same harmony?
Steady as she goes in Columbus, if you discount the soap opera of Sigi Schmid's departure. It's not a bad plan considering the Crew won both the Supporters' Shield and MLS Cup last season. Things will be harder for the Crew in 2009; only D.C. United (1996 and 1997) and Houston (2006 and 2007) have lifted consecutive MLS Cups. Don't expect changes, but don't expect the Crew to lift the trophy again either even though the quality and depth in the squad will mean they'll be there or thereabouts when the title gets decided.
3. Kansas City
Key arrivals: Matt Besler (D), Santiago Hirsig (M), Adam Cristman (F)
Key departures: Kerry Zavagnin (M), Carlos Marinelli (M)
Key player: Jimmy Conrad (D)
Key question: Is this a leap year?
Everything looks in place for a sustained playoff run. The depth is better in midfield and attack with Cristman to bolster the front line and Hirsig to add another creative midfield schemer. The additional firepower might be needed with the perennially fragile Josh Wolff and Claudio Lopez set to start the season as the front two. The real vulnerability for the Wizards is in the back, where there is little to no depth to back up veteran stalwarts Conrad and Kevin Hartman and the talented young players flanking them. Conrad and Hartman will have to stay healthy for the Wizards to meet their expectations.
4. New England
Key arrivals: Kevin Alston (D), Michael Videira (M)
Key departures: Michael Parkhurst (D), Khano Smith (M), Adam Cristman (F)
Key player: Steve Ralston (M)
Key question: Will one missing brick make the building fall down?
The Revolution marks the onset of the “more questions than answers” portion of our preview. Substantive questions exist for the Revs at the back and up the front. The most pressing is how the Revs will compensate for the loss of Michael Parkhurst with Gabriel Badilla struggling with a bad back and a lack of fitness, a veteran central defender yet to arrive and a switch to a four-man backline mooted. Scoring goals might be difficult too because Taylor Twellman has a bum neck and may miss some time to start the season. Revs boss Steve Nicol and his core of veterans will do their best to fill in the cracks without substantive reinforcements, but there might not be enough left to mount a serious charge as the team reshapes its identity.
5. Toronto FC
Key arrivals: Stefan Frei (GK), Adrian Serioux (D), Sam Cronin (M), Dwayne De Rosario (M), Pablo Vitti (F)
Key departures: Tyrone Marshall (D), Julius James (D)
Key player: Carl Robinson (M)
Key question: Is a paper tiger dangerous?
With De Rosario and Vitti in the fold, TFC looks like it has cured its offensive ills. Serioux's addition to the back line adds one of the two center backs required. On paper, this TFC team has more than enough talent to challenge for a playoff berth. It's the lack of balance that gives me pause. Significant responsibility will be placed on the shoulders of Robinson and a reconfigured back four. Robinson's a tidy player, but Serioux doesn't have a suitable, top-quality partner and fullbacks Marvell Wynne and Jim Brennan might prefer to push farther forward than they can given this alignment. Watch out for impressive Frei; he could take Greg Sutton's job between the pipes before the season is out.
6. New York
Key arrivals: Mike Petke (D), Khano Smith (M), Dominic Oduro (F)
Key departures: Chris Leitch (D), Diego Jimenez (D), Gabriel Cichero (D), Jeff Parke (D), Dave van den Bergh (M)
Key player: Juan Pablo Angel (F)
Key question: Does speed kill?
The Red Bulls have done their best to acquire as many quick players possible. Out went the slow and often consistent van den Bergh and in came the inconsistent yet fast Smith to patrol the left flank. Oduro, another quick player who flatters to deceive, will partner the far more prolific Angel up top. In theory, the speed tactic could rip apart many of the slow of foot defenses around the league. In practice, all those speedy players bombing forward may end up exposing a rickety defense and mediocre midfield. New York's relentless pursuit of a fullback makes one wonder why the Red Bulls didn't chase a central defender just as ardently.
7. D.C. United
Key arrivals: Dejan Jakovic (D), Christian Gomez (M), Chris Pontius (M)
Key departures: Gonzalo Peralta (D), Gonzalo Martinez (D), Ivan Guerrero (M)
Key player: Jakovic
Key question: Would the “seven seconds or less” offense work in MLS?
United's best chance to win this season likely rests with a breakneck tempo and a relentless offensive mindset. The projected back line boasts a veteran right back in Bryan Namoff and three younger players after Brazilian defender Roger spurned the team during the offseason. While Greg Janicki, Dejan Jakovic and Marc Burch have talent, they might struggle to organize themselves without a veteran central defender to show them the way. The defensive uncertainty will place additional pressure on the returning Gomez to improve on a mediocre 2008. He will and United will score goals with Luciano Emilio and Jaime Moreno leading the line, but it likely won't be enough to mask the defensive problems.
Around The League
- David Beckham returns to the Galaxy this summer. All is right with the world. Or something like that.
- Spotted on the Chivas USA sidelines this weekend: Abel Xavier. Wouldn't that be an interesting move for the Goats to bring the veteran Portuguese international into the fold? Chivas USA could use another central defender. Not sure Xavier will be the answer, however.
- In the expansion race, reports out of British Columbia contend Vancouver has put its nose in front. Given the deep pockets involved in the ownership group, that decision looks quite sensible at this point, especially considering the public hand wringing taking place in Portland right now.
- Remember that note about Aki Riihilahti last Monday? Strike it. Riihilahti failed a physical and won't be joining the Quakes after all.
- When I spoke to Twellman this weekend, he mentioned the story of former Minnesota Twins third baseman Corey Koskie and how it related to his own struggles to figure out why he kept feeling the ill effects of the collision with Steve Cronin on Aug. 30. Gordon Edes' lengthy takeout on Koskie's plight is a must-read to help understand Twellman's current situation.
- Instant college scouting report with the 2010 MLS SuperDraft a mere ten months away: Two Revolution players I spoke to after Saturday night's 2-1 win over Wake Forest raved about the Demon Deacons' Corben Bone and Zach Schilawski. One even suggested Bone could start in this league right now. From this observer's viewpoint, the lanky and talented Ike Opara would also have a place somewhere in the league immediately. His athleticism is professional quality.
- Don't forget to join me and Goal.com USA on Twitter.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com.
Prediction making is a fool's errand.
I grimaced when I looked back at last year's Eastern Conference predictions and realized what yarns I had erroneously spun. D.C. United to win the conference title. Columbus to miss the playoffs. Claudio Reyna as one of the best players in the conference heading into the season. Sure, there are a few good shouts in there – Kevin Goldthwaite to rebound in 2008 and New England to struggle under the strain of the schedule – but I'm not heading to Vegas any time soon.
I mention this not just to make light of my season preview prognostication abilities, but in order to note the fluidity inherent during the MLS campaign. Seasons evolve as they progress. What looks certain in March can turn out to be decidedly different by November. In other words, there are no certainties to be had right now. At this point, predictions mean throwing stuff up against the wall and hoping something sticks.
That being said, it's time to fire away. I'll preview the Eastern Conference this week before evaluating the Western Conference next week.
Projected order of finish
(* - denotes playoff team)
1. Chicago*
2. Columbus*
3. Kansas City*
4. New England*
5. Toronto FC
6. New York
7. D.C. United
EC Semifinals: Chicago over New England; Columbus over Kansas City
EC Final: Chicago over Columbus
1. Chicago
Key arrivals: Baggio Husidic (M)
Key departures: Diego Gutierrez (D), Stephen King (M)
Key player: Cuauhtemoc Blanco (M)
Key question: Do the old and wise heads have one more inspirational year in them?
There won't be any excuses in Bridgeview. Not with Cuauhtemoc Blanco and Brian McBride running the offense and not with one of the league's stingiest back fours still in tact. Chicago assembled this team to challenge for MLS Cup last year and fell short in the Eastern Conference final at Crew Stadium. No shame in that, given the Crew's home dominance last season and McBride's mid-season arrival. But that won't be good enough in 2009 and the Fire should be able to go at least one round better. One massive caveat: the aging Fire must avoid injuries, particularly to McBride and Blanco.
2. Columbus
Key arrivals: None
Key departures: Brad Evans (M)
Key player: Guillermo Barros Schelotto
Key question: Can a different conductor create the same harmony?
Steady as she goes in Columbus, if you discount the soap opera of Sigi Schmid's departure. It's not a bad plan considering the Crew won both the Supporters' Shield and MLS Cup last season. Things will be harder for the Crew in 2009; only D.C. United (1996 and 1997) and Houston (2006 and 2007) have lifted consecutive MLS Cups. Don't expect changes, but don't expect the Crew to lift the trophy again either even though the quality and depth in the squad will mean they'll be there or thereabouts when the title gets decided.
3. Kansas City
Key arrivals: Matt Besler (D), Santiago Hirsig (M), Adam Cristman (F)
Key departures: Kerry Zavagnin (M), Carlos Marinelli (M)
Key player: Jimmy Conrad (D)
Key question: Is this a leap year?
Everything looks in place for a sustained playoff run. The depth is better in midfield and attack with Cristman to bolster the front line and Hirsig to add another creative midfield schemer. The additional firepower might be needed with the perennially fragile Josh Wolff and Claudio Lopez set to start the season as the front two. The real vulnerability for the Wizards is in the back, where there is little to no depth to back up veteran stalwarts Conrad and Kevin Hartman and the talented young players flanking them. Conrad and Hartman will have to stay healthy for the Wizards to meet their expectations.
4. New England
Key arrivals: Kevin Alston (D), Michael Videira (M)
Key departures: Michael Parkhurst (D), Khano Smith (M), Adam Cristman (F)
Key player: Steve Ralston (M)
Key question: Will one missing brick make the building fall down?
The Revolution marks the onset of the “more questions than answers” portion of our preview. Substantive questions exist for the Revs at the back and up the front. The most pressing is how the Revs will compensate for the loss of Michael Parkhurst with Gabriel Badilla struggling with a bad back and a lack of fitness, a veteran central defender yet to arrive and a switch to a four-man backline mooted. Scoring goals might be difficult too because Taylor Twellman has a bum neck and may miss some time to start the season. Revs boss Steve Nicol and his core of veterans will do their best to fill in the cracks without substantive reinforcements, but there might not be enough left to mount a serious charge as the team reshapes its identity.
5. Toronto FC
Key arrivals: Stefan Frei (GK), Adrian Serioux (D), Sam Cronin (M), Dwayne De Rosario (M), Pablo Vitti (F)
Key departures: Tyrone Marshall (D), Julius James (D)
Key player: Carl Robinson (M)
Key question: Is a paper tiger dangerous?
With De Rosario and Vitti in the fold, TFC looks like it has cured its offensive ills. Serioux's addition to the back line adds one of the two center backs required. On paper, this TFC team has more than enough talent to challenge for a playoff berth. It's the lack of balance that gives me pause. Significant responsibility will be placed on the shoulders of Robinson and a reconfigured back four. Robinson's a tidy player, but Serioux doesn't have a suitable, top-quality partner and fullbacks Marvell Wynne and Jim Brennan might prefer to push farther forward than they can given this alignment. Watch out for impressive Frei; he could take Greg Sutton's job between the pipes before the season is out.
6. New York
Key arrivals: Mike Petke (D), Khano Smith (M), Dominic Oduro (F)
Key departures: Chris Leitch (D), Diego Jimenez (D), Gabriel Cichero (D), Jeff Parke (D), Dave van den Bergh (M)
Key player: Juan Pablo Angel (F)
Key question: Does speed kill?
The Red Bulls have done their best to acquire as many quick players possible. Out went the slow and often consistent van den Bergh and in came the inconsistent yet fast Smith to patrol the left flank. Oduro, another quick player who flatters to deceive, will partner the far more prolific Angel up top. In theory, the speed tactic could rip apart many of the slow of foot defenses around the league. In practice, all those speedy players bombing forward may end up exposing a rickety defense and mediocre midfield. New York's relentless pursuit of a fullback makes one wonder why the Red Bulls didn't chase a central defender just as ardently.
7. D.C. United
Key arrivals: Dejan Jakovic (D), Christian Gomez (M), Chris Pontius (M)
Key departures: Gonzalo Peralta (D), Gonzalo Martinez (D), Ivan Guerrero (M)
Key player: Jakovic
Key question: Would the “seven seconds or less” offense work in MLS?
United's best chance to win this season likely rests with a breakneck tempo and a relentless offensive mindset. The projected back line boasts a veteran right back in Bryan Namoff and three younger players after Brazilian defender Roger spurned the team during the offseason. While Greg Janicki, Dejan Jakovic and Marc Burch have talent, they might struggle to organize themselves without a veteran central defender to show them the way. The defensive uncertainty will place additional pressure on the returning Gomez to improve on a mediocre 2008. He will and United will score goals with Luciano Emilio and Jaime Moreno leading the line, but it likely won't be enough to mask the defensive problems.
Around The League
- David Beckham returns to the Galaxy this summer. All is right with the world. Or something like that.
- Spotted on the Chivas USA sidelines this weekend: Abel Xavier. Wouldn't that be an interesting move for the Goats to bring the veteran Portuguese international into the fold? Chivas USA could use another central defender. Not sure Xavier will be the answer, however.
- In the expansion race, reports out of British Columbia contend Vancouver has put its nose in front. Given the deep pockets involved in the ownership group, that decision looks quite sensible at this point, especially considering the public hand wringing taking place in Portland right now.
- Remember that note about Aki Riihilahti last Monday? Strike it. Riihilahti failed a physical and won't be joining the Quakes after all.
- When I spoke to Twellman this weekend, he mentioned the story of former Minnesota Twins third baseman Corey Koskie and how it related to his own struggles to figure out why he kept feeling the ill effects of the collision with Steve Cronin on Aug. 30. Gordon Edes' lengthy takeout on Koskie's plight is a must-read to help understand Twellman's current situation.
- Instant college scouting report with the 2010 MLS SuperDraft a mere ten months away: Two Revolution players I spoke to after Saturday night's 2-1 win over Wake Forest raved about the Demon Deacons' Corben Bone and Zach Schilawski. One even suggested Bone could start in this league right now. From this observer's viewpoint, the lanky and talented Ike Opara would also have a place somewhere in the league immediately. His athleticism is professional quality.
- Don't forget to join me and Goal.com USA on Twitter.
Kyle McCarthy writes the Monday MLS Breakdown and frequently writes opinion pieces during the week for Goal.com. He also covers the New England Revolution for the Boston Herald and MLSnet.com. Contact him with your questions or comments at kyle.mccarthy@goal.com.
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