The Rams travel to the Amex Stadium this evening for the first leg of their play-off semi-final against the Seagulls, with our tipster backing a tight game
The Rams comfortably finished in the top six, finishing third by five points. Brighton required a last-minute goal away at Nottingham Forest on the last day of the season to secure sixth place, with Oscar Garcia's men battling with Reading for the final spot.
Brighton come into this match unbeaten in their last eight matches, drawing four and winning four. The Seagulls reached the play-offs last season only to be knocked out by Crystal Palace, who won 2-0 at the Amex after the first leg ended 0-0. Despite being the underdogs for this tie, Garcia's men do have the experience of playing at this stage of the league campaign. Paddy Power price them at 6/4 (2.50) to win.
Derby County will be delighted with their final league position after Steve McClaren took over Derby in September when they were struggling in the league. A huge turn around saw them challenge for the top two, but eventually come up short. The Rams will be confident of qualifying for the final, having beaten Brighton twice already this season. Paddy Power price them at 19/10 (2.90) to win the first leg, with the same firm pricing the draw at 11/5 (3.20).
With the outright result tough to call in these matches, it's worth looking elsewhere for value.
As this tie a two-legged affair, the first legs are often tight matches, with both teams not wanting to be out of the tie after the first game. With this in mind, it's worth backing few goals in this fixture.
Under 2.5 goals at 8/13 (1.62) is too skinny to back, it's worth backing both sides not to score at 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power.
This bet would have paid out in five of Brighton's last six matches at home, as well as five of Derby's last eight away matches.
|Both teams to score 'NO' at 10/11 (1.91) 1.5pt stake with Paddy Power|
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