Spain are a great side, but according to our Spanish expert Phil Kitromilides against teams set out to defend they sometimes struggle in front of goalHaving overcome Belarus 2-1 on Friday with a far from spectacular performance, Spain require just a point at home to Georgia this evening to confirm their place at Brazil 2014.
A victory for Georgia at 50/1 (60.00) with Bet365 would be the biggest shock in the history of international football, with the victory for La Roja at 1/5 (1.20) never really in question.
It falls to us once more then to try and find some value in a market devoid of appealing options. Vicente Del Bosque's side found it hard to break down Belarus on Friday as they visitors defended effectively and en masse.
Expect more of the same from the Georgians, meaning some might be tempted by the 10/3 (4.33) offered for Draw/Spain in the half time/full time market.
Instead backing under 3.5 goals at 10/11 (1.91) could prove to be a wise option.
Though it might feel wrong to back against a high scoring encounter with the world champions facing thoroughly inferior opposition, this qualifying campaign has taught us that Spain often have trouble in breaking down teams set up entirely to defend.
It is of course not easy to undo a 10-man defence and Spain have found that out, with six of their seven World Cup qualifiers seeing less than four goals.
Despite appearing a strange selection the statistics back this bet up and it is well worth considering.
|Under 3.5 goals at 10/11 (1.91) 1.5 point stake with bet365|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports journalist and TV Presenter in Madrid