Jim Knight had another profitable week in his column last time out and this weekend he's looking to Sunday's clash between Tottenham and Swansea for another winner
It wasn't the biggest win but if you can grind out profit in the bad weeks, the good weeks will put you in an even stronger position, we're now up to around an 11 per cent return from the season so far and with plenty of time to go, here's hoping that number could be even higher come May.
Second Half Highest Scoring: Tottenham v Swansea at Evens (2.0) with Paddy Power
Onto this week's games now, and a market that I like a lot, but haven't talked about too much so far, is the second half of a game to be the highest scoring. It's something that statistics can often help you with and the style of play a team employs can often change after half-time as they look to play more expansively.
Tottenham are a team where late drama seems a regular feature this season. Andre Villas-Boas' men have seen 15 goals in the first 45 minutes of their Premier League games, compared to 39 after the break.
Swansea keep things tight too, with 18 goals in the first half and 27 in the second. As a result, backing the second half to contain the most goals at Evens (2.0) looks a great bet with Paddy Power.
This is because these stats are even more prominent when considering the home and away records of both clubs.
Swansea's games on their travels have only seen four first-half goals, compared to 13 in the second half. Tottenham's matches, for their part, have seen just five goals in the first 45 minutes and a staggering 18 afterwards in Premier League games at White Hart Lane this season.
To add some context to this, Michael Laudrup's Swansea side are clearly set up to contain and frustrate their opposition away from home, with Leon Britton and Sung-Yeung Ki often sitting in front of a settled back four. With the division’s top scorer in Michu, if they can keep themselves in games until after half-time, they have a great chance of collecting points on the road.
The expectation placed on home sides to go out and be the aggressors will suit Swansea's game plan, they like keeping hold of the ball and that frustrates teams, especially in front of their own fans to the point at which mistakes are made and teams are overcommitted in the final third. Recent wins over Newcastle and Arsenal are good examples.
Meanwhile, Spurs boss Andre-Villas Boas has a habit of changing things around late and whether it's a lack of concentration from the Spurs players or naive tactics, they're certainly liable to concede as well as score late on.
That said, much like Swansea's approach, there seems to be a more expansive, attacking style played after half-time so far this season, Spurs have scored just three times in the first half of their home games as opposed to 10 afterwards.
These patterns are prominent enough to make this my only bet of the weekend and Paddy Power price the second half to be the highest scoring at Evens (2.0) which would appear a good enough price to become involved with. I'm going to stake £20 of my betting bankroll on this one and hope for a low scoring first half in north London on Sunday afternoon.
Win a £20 free bet
Henri Sheme was the winner of our competition last week, he backed a winning four-fold consisting of Southampton, Atalanta, Malaga and Freiburg at over 10/1 (11.0), there was also a winning treble at 19/2 (9.50). To be in with a chance of winning this week all you have to do is email firstname.lastname@example.org with your best weekend tip and include "Free20" in the subject.
One entry per person, competition is open to the residents of UK and Ireland only, the editor's decision is final.
Entry is open until midday on Saturday so get your emails in early to ensure your tip is counted.
Balance at the start of the week: £557.30
Profit for the season: £57.30
|Second Half Most Goals (Tottenham v Swansea) : £20 at Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power
|Total staked this week: £20|
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Jim Knight is Betting Editor at Goal.com and has been tipping football games since he was old enough to place a bet. He is a Leicester City fan, writer and member of the We Are Going Up Podcast