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Olympics 2012: Quarter-finals qualification scenario

Olympics 2012: Quarter-finals qualification scenario

أولمبياد لندن 2012

With the final matchday approaching, Goal.com takes a closer look at the groups and their possible outcomes...

Before deciphering the possibilities of which teams will qualify for the quarter finals, we first need to understand the rules governing a tie-breaker. Like most major international tournaments, two teams would qualify from every group for the knockout stages. The ranking within every group is resolved by:

1. Greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
2. Goal difference in all group matches;
3. Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

However, if two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above mentioned criterions, their ranking shall be determined by:

4. Greatest number of points obtained in all group matches between the teams concerned;
5. Goal difference resulting from all group matches between the teams concerned;
6. Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
7. Drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

Group A - Possible Outcomes

Next Fixtures:

Senegal vs United Arab Emirates
Great Britain vs Uruguay


                                                 Great Britain are in the driver's seat

Country GP PTS GD GS
Great Britain 2 4 2 4
Senegal 2 4 2 3
Uruguay 2 3 -1 2
United Arab Emirates 2 0 -3 2


Who is already through or knocked out?
The group is very open in many respects and anyone could possibly go through with the exception of United Arab Emirates.

Great Britain's Scenario
The hosts need a draw to stay in the competition. A loss would put them in hot water unless the UAE defeat Senegal in the final game; in such a situation, Great Britain would hope that their margin of defeat is one goal less than Senegal's.

Senegal's Scenario
Senegal also need a draw to be in the next round of the competition. They can only be eliminated if they lose to UAE and Uruguay defeat Great Britain by a lesser margin. In case Great Britain and Senegal are tied after goal difference, then out of the two teams, the one with more goals scored in the group would progress.

Uruguay
Defeat means elimination. There are two possibilities for them to seal a berth in the final 8. The first is to defeat Great Britain. The second is to secure a draw and hope that UAE defeat Senegal by four goals.

Group B
- Possible Outcomes

Next Fixtures:

Mexico vs Switzerland
South Korea vs Gabon


                                                  Mexico will be confident to progress

Country GP PTS GD GS
Mexico 2 4 2 2
South Korea 2 4 1 2
Switzerland 2 1 -1 2
Gabon 2 1 -2 1

Who is already through or knocked out?
This remains the most interesting group of the competition. It's all to play for and anyone could qualify or be eliminated on the final matchday.

Mexico's Scenario
Mexico currently sit comfortably on top of the group. A draw is all they need to make it to the next round.
If Mexico loses their next game and South Korea win or draw theirs, then the Mexicans would be eliminated considering the head-to-head record against the Swiss. However, it will be a different ball game if both South Korea and Mexico lose. All teams would be tied on 4 points and the goal difference or more number of goals scored in the group rule would apply.

South Korea's Scenario
South Korea on their part too just need a draw. Should they lose to Gabon, then they can only hope that Mexico don't get a result from their game. They would be eliminated on head-to-head basis against Gabon  only if Mexico win or draw their fixture. A loss on the part of Mexico too would mean that all teams would be tied on 4 points.

Switzerland and Gabon's Scenario
Both the teams have to go for the kill in the final game. A draw or loss would not do them any favour. The only chance of saving themselves from elimination would be to bag all three points and push the group into the tie-breaker rules.

Group C - Possible Outcomes

Next Fixtures:

Brazil vs New Zealand
Egypt vs Belarus
                      
                                                 Brazil have already entered the final 8

Country GP PTS GD GS
Brazil 2 6 3 6
Belarus 2 3 -1 2
Egypt 2 1 -1 3
New Zealand 2 1 -1 1

Who is already through or knocked out?
Brazil have already guaranteed a place for themselves in the quarter finals having won both their group games so far. However, the other three teams still harbour the hope of qualifying for the next round.

Belarus’ scenario
Since Belarus defeated New Zealand earlier, a win or draw on their fixture would ensure their safe passage to the next round. They would be eliminated only if they are beaten by Egypt.
 
New Zealand’s scenario
A defeat or draw against Brazil would be the end of the road for them. However, if they cause an upset to Brazil then they need to hope that Egypt defeats Belarus; in this case both Egypt and New Zealand would be on 4 points and the team with the better goal difference or better goals scored record in the group would go through. A tie between Egypt and Belarus would mean that Belarus and New Zealand, should they beat Brazil, would be on 4 points and Belarus would go through by virtue of a better head-to-head record against New Zealand.

Egypt’s scenario
Egypt will be eliminated if there is a positive result for Belarus. But if they do manage to overcome Belarus then the consequences would be the same as in the case of New Zealand. They would hope for a negative result for New Zealand; but if New Zealand defeat Brazil then Egypt would need to have a better goal difference or better goals scored record in the group in comparison to All Whites since both Egypt and New Zealand would be tied on 4 points.

Group D - Possible Outcomes

Next Fixtures:
Japan vs Honduras
Spain vs Morocco


                                   Juan Mata reacting after Spain's shock exit from the Olympics

Country GP PTS GD GS
Japan 2 6 2 2
Honduras 2 4 1 3
Morocco 2 1 -1 2
Spain 2 0 -2 0

Who is already through or knocked out?
Having won both their games, Japan sits comfortably on top and are sure of progressing to the quarters. However, the biggest set-back of the tournament so far has been the elimination of Spain who faced back to back 1-0 losses.

Honduras' Scenario
Honduras play their next game against Japan and would look to top the group. A draw would ensure their qualification for the knockout stage. A defeat by Japan would shift the focus on the other game. If Morocco draw or lose to Spain then Honduras would be guaranteed a place in the last 8. Honduras would be eliminated only if they lose to Japan and Morocco win over Spain by a two goal margin.

Morocco's Scenario
Morocco still have hope of qualifying for the quarters. In order to do this, they must not leave any stone unturned against Spain. A draw or loss would end their hopes of moving on to the next round. In order to progress they must beat Spain by a margin of at least two goals and hope that Honduras lose their fixture.

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