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Food For Thought: How FIFA Rankings Work
After India's climb to 149th spot in the FIFA Rankings, many readers wondered how the points were calculated. So Goal.com's Atishay Agarwal gave it a shot, and explains why it isn't that complicated...
09-Sep-2009 10:58:38 PM
The FIFA world rankings are something every football fan checks out once in a while, but sometimes they do leave you with a question, of how they're actually calculated. When India's latest rankings were announced, many Goal.com readers requested us to explain just how these rankings work. So, here's a brief explanation of how FIFA determine which team is the best in the world.
The new rankings, which were started in 2006, are updated every month, and were implemented right after the World Cup in Germany. One of the biggest changes in the new rankings was that instead of taking the last eight years' performances into consideration, the period would be halved to just four years. Also, the number of goals scored, as well as home advantage, have no bearing on the rankings whatsoever now.
Let's try and break this up and have a look at how it's done. There are four main parameters upon which the number of points scored by a team in a match is determined.
1) Firstly, points are awarded for the result. Three points for victory, one for a draw, and none for defeat. In case of penalties, the winning team gains two points, and the losing team gets one. Let's call this parameter A.
2) Then comes the importance of the fixture. Let's call this factor B. Here's how this factor takes its value:
Friendly matches - 1.0
WC Qualifier & Continental Qualifier - 2.5
Continental final competition and COnfederations Cup - 3.0
World Cup final competition - 4.0
3) This factor gives importance to the strength of the opposition. The team at the top of the rankings is given the value 2.0, and the rest are calculated as per this formula:
(200-Rank) / 100.
Which means that if someone is playing 6th ranked Russia, they would have this value equal to 1.94. However, if the opposition is ranked 150th or below, this value is kept at a minimum of 0.50. Let's call this factor C.
4) This gives importance to the strength of the confederation. If an inter-continental match is being played, the value that's taken into consideration is the mean value of both confederation's strength factors. These values are calculated using the number of victories for their confederation's teams in the last three World Cups. These are the current values. Let's call this D.
UEFA - 1.00
CONMEBOL - 0.98
CONACAF - 0.85
AFC - 0.85
CAF - 0.85
OFC - 0.85
Taking these four factors into consideration, the total number of points amassed by a team in a match is calculated. The total number of points gathered by a team in one game can be given by:
Total Points (P) = A x B x C x D x 100
The points amassed per match don't decide the net score alone. An average score of all matches played in the last twelve months is calculated. The average is combined with averages from earlier games, which are devalued as time goes on. The weightage given to games in the last four years decrease with each year (100%,50%,30%,20%).
So for example, let's take the Nehru Cup final between India and Syria, and calculate how many points India scored in that game.
For that match:
A = 2 (They won on penalties)
B = 1.0 (These matches are counted as friendlies)
C = (200-95)/100 = 1.05 (Syria were ranked 95 in the world)
D = 0.85 (Strength factor of AFC is 0.85)
Therefore, the total number of points amassed by India in that game was:
(2 x 1 x 1.05 x 0.85 x 100) = 178.5
That's hardly a high number, as the maximum points a team can gain from a match is 2400.
And from the victories against Krygyztan and Sri Lanka, India garnered a total of 255 points. The final against Syria WAS NOT counted for the new rankings, so India should move further up once October's rankings are announced.
Taking another example, where more points were scored in a game, let's take the World Cup 2006 Quarter Final between France and Brazil and calculate the points using the current system.
Brazil lost and scored zero points.
For France:
A = 3 (Won in normal time)
B = 4.0 (It was a World Cup game)
C = 2.0 (Brazil were ranked No.1 at the time)
D = (1 + 0.98)/2 = 0.99 (Taking the mean of the strength factors of UEFA & CONMEBOL)
Total Points = (3 x 4 x 2 x .99 x 100) = 2376
So that was an example of a game where close to maximum points were scored by a team.
Hope that makes the process a tad clearer to some of our readers, who were wanting to know more about how the rankings are calculated. Also, it takes one back to arithmetic class!
Atishay Agarwal
The new rankings, which were started in 2006, are updated every month, and were implemented right after the World Cup in Germany. One of the biggest changes in the new rankings was that instead of taking the last eight years' performances into consideration, the period would be halved to just four years. Also, the number of goals scored, as well as home advantage, have no bearing on the rankings whatsoever now.
Let's try and break this up and have a look at how it's done. There are four main parameters upon which the number of points scored by a team in a match is determined.
1) Firstly, points are awarded for the result. Three points for victory, one for a draw, and none for defeat. In case of penalties, the winning team gains two points, and the losing team gets one. Let's call this parameter A.
2) Then comes the importance of the fixture. Let's call this factor B. Here's how this factor takes its value:
Friendly matches - 1.0
WC Qualifier & Continental Qualifier - 2.5
Continental final competition and COnfederations Cup - 3.0
World Cup final competition - 4.0
3) This factor gives importance to the strength of the opposition. The team at the top of the rankings is given the value 2.0, and the rest are calculated as per this formula:
(200-Rank) / 100.
Which means that if someone is playing 6th ranked Russia, they would have this value equal to 1.94. However, if the opposition is ranked 150th or below, this value is kept at a minimum of 0.50. Let's call this factor C.
4) This gives importance to the strength of the confederation. If an inter-continental match is being played, the value that's taken into consideration is the mean value of both confederation's strength factors. These values are calculated using the number of victories for their confederation's teams in the last three World Cups. These are the current values. Let's call this D.
UEFA - 1.00
CONMEBOL - 0.98
CONACAF - 0.85
AFC - 0.85
CAF - 0.85
OFC - 0.85
Taking these four factors into consideration, the total number of points amassed by a team in a match is calculated. The total number of points gathered by a team in one game can be given by:
Total Points (P) = A x B x C x D x 100
The points amassed per match don't decide the net score alone. An average score of all matches played in the last twelve months is calculated. The average is combined with averages from earlier games, which are devalued as time goes on. The weightage given to games in the last four years decrease with each year (100%,50%,30%,20%).
So for example, let's take the Nehru Cup final between India and Syria, and calculate how many points India scored in that game.
For that match:
A = 2 (They won on penalties)
B = 1.0 (These matches are counted as friendlies)
C = (200-95)/100 = 1.05 (Syria were ranked 95 in the world)
D = 0.85 (Strength factor of AFC is 0.85)
Therefore, the total number of points amassed by India in that game was:
(2 x 1 x 1.05 x 0.85 x 100) = 178.5
That's hardly a high number, as the maximum points a team can gain from a match is 2400.
And from the victories against Krygyztan and Sri Lanka, India garnered a total of 255 points. The final against Syria WAS NOT counted for the new rankings, so India should move further up once October's rankings are announced.
Taking another example, where more points were scored in a game, let's take the World Cup 2006 Quarter Final between France and Brazil and calculate the points using the current system.
Brazil lost and scored zero points.
For France:
A = 3 (Won in normal time)
B = 4.0 (It was a World Cup game)
C = 2.0 (Brazil were ranked No.1 at the time)
D = (1 + 0.98)/2 = 0.99 (Taking the mean of the strength factors of UEFA & CONMEBOL)
Total Points = (3 x 4 x 2 x .99 x 100) = 2376
So that was an example of a game where close to maximum points were scored by a team.
Hope that makes the process a tad clearer to some of our readers, who were wanting to know more about how the rankings are calculated. Also, it takes one back to arithmetic class!
Atishay Agarwal
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