Stick Or Twist? The Mid-Season Sackings That Have Paid Off In The Premier League...And Those Which Haven't

ANALYSIS
By Andrew Kennedy

Last week, Tony Fernandes took the decision to relieve Neil Warnock of his post at QPR and install Mark Hughes as the club’s new boss, citing the need to have a more established name at the helm in order to attract a higher quality of player.

Whilst the owner and chairman’s judgement will no doubt have been based upon a desire to have his ‘own man’ at the helm before any further significant investment at Loftus Road, the Malaysian will also be hoping that Hughes’ appointment can reinvigorate an ailing side that has fallen to 17th in the Premier League table, just one point above the relegation zone.

So high are the stakes and so quickly can teams slip from mid-table mediocrity to struggling for survival, it is vital the former Manchester City boss’ honeymoon period gets underway as quickly as possible, starting with a trip to the north-east to face Newcastle United on Sunday – a region which has felt the benefits of mid-season managerial changes in recent seasons.

Hughes will line up alongside Alan Pardew in the opposite dugout at the Sports Direct Arena, with the ex-West Ham boss a prime example of the success an executive shake-up can bring. The Hoops also need look no further than the Magpies’ neighbours Sunderland, whose recent sacking of Steve Bruce has led to a superb revival under Martin O’Neill since the Irishman took over the reins in early December.

Yet does opting out of a long-term managerial plan in favour of new blood, and the short-term boost it can bring, really bear fruit come the end of the season? Since the beginning of the 2007-2008 campaign there have been 10 Premier League sackings in the months of December and January – the recognised mid-way point of the top-flight campaign.

Goal.com takes a look at the statistical evidence to see whether it is better to stick or twist in the sack race.

The most recent example of the impetus that a mid-season managerial appointment can bring is currently being showcased at the Stadium of Light. Following a 2-1 home defeat to Wigan, Sunderland were sat 16th in the Premier League table, as the club’s miserable form threatened to turn the Black Cats into genuine relegation candidates.

Owner and chairman Ellis Short took the decision to axe Steve Bruce at the end of November, and following Martin O’Neill’s appointment as manager, the club have seen a remarkable turnaround in fortunes. In just six Premier League games, O’Neill has taken Sunderland into the top half of the table, winning 13 points compared to the 11 taken in 13 games under Bruce.

Defeated just once in seven in all competitions, the Irishman was recently named Barclay’s Manager of the Month for December. Even more impressively, with no significant changes to the squad that struggled so much under Bruce, O’Neill has secured an average of 2.17 points per game compared to the former Wigan man’s 0.85.

Indeed, this is not the first time the Black Cats have enjoyed a premature spring revival, with the decision to sack Roy Keane in December 2008 - with the side sat in 18th place on 15 points - justified by Ricky Sbragia’s ability to guide Sunderland to 16th and to safety by the end of the campaign.

In the same month of that year, Blackburn were widely criticised for dismissing Paul Ince after just 17 games, with the Lancashire outfit sat in ninth place with 26 points. Yet Sam Allardyce’s return of 1.69 points per game in comparison to Ince’s 1.53 helped Rovers to a top-seven spot that season. Allardyce’s arrival not only saw a predictably better defensive record, conceding on average 0.15 goals fewer per game, but also a greater attacking output.

Arguably the most successful example of a mid-season shuffle lies at Craven Cottage. Following a woeful start to the 2007-08 campaign under Lawrie Sanchez – who had picked up an average of just 0.76 points from 17 games – Roy Hodgson was appointed as Fulham manager. The ex-Inter man’s arrival saw 22 points won from a possible 51, at an average of 1.29, which was enough improvement to see the west Londoners escape relegation on the final day of the season.

Whilst Hodgson’s time at Fulham would bring greater success, including a Europa League final appearance against Atletico Madrid in 2010, the 64-year-old’s tenure at Liverpool was to be quite the opposite. After just 20 games at the Anfield helm, Hodgson was ousted in place of club legend Kenny Dalglish, with 12th place and a return of just 1.25 points per game just not good enough for a side chasing European football.

The Scotsman duly delivered, not only raising the Merseyside club’s points average to 1.83, but also conceding 0.41 fewer goals and scoring 0.74 more per game to secure a sixth-place finish at the end of the season.

As showcased with Liverpool, the chase for Champions League qualification is now just as much a determining factor as avoiding relegation in terms of managerial changes – something which was again taken into account with Mark Hughes’ dismissal at Manchester City in 2009. Despite beating Sunderland 4-3 and sitting comfortably in sixth place, within touching distance of the top four, the Welshman was relieved of his duties in mid-December.

Just as noteworthy in context has been Pardew’s replacement of Chris Hughton at Newcastle.  Whilst the 50-year-old led the side to a 12th placed finish despite taking over with the Magpies positioned once place higher, Pardew managed to return a greater average points total of 1.23 to Hughton’s 1.19, even though he had to contend with the departure of Andy Carroll. The former West Ham boss has now turned Newcastle into surprise contenders for the European spots, despite acting under increasingly tight budget constraints.

There are a number of other managerial changes from the months of November and February which add further weight to the argument. Hodgson’s replacement of Roberto di Matteo at West Brom in February brought an 11th place finish for the Baggies with a return of 1.62 points on average, an improvement on the Italians’ 1.04 which had led the Hawthorns side to slip down the table to 16th.

Similarly, Steve Bruce’s appointment as Wigan manager following Chris Hutchings' spell in charge in 2007 secured the Lactics Premier League safety, while Guus Hiddink’s short-term stint at Chelsea in 2009 not only brought FA Cup success, but an increase of 0.58 points per game on Luiz Felipe Scolari’s efforts.

Yet whilst statistics show that of the 10 mid-season managerial changes since 2007-2008, seven have secured higher league positions and none have resulted in relegation, with an average increase of 0.25 points won per game, there are still a number of examples of when cutting ties is just simply not an option, or enough.

As Blackburn supporters complete a 24-hour protest outside Ewood Park against the club’s ownership and management on Saturday, the case of Steve Kean is arguably the most resonant. Following Kean’s appointment as Rovers boss in December 2010 in place of Allardyce, the club slipped from 13th place to 15th, a backwards step that seems all the more significant considering the club’s current plight.

With Blackburn rooted to the bottom of the table, club custodians Venky’s have been either stupid, stubborn or both in refusing to bow down to fans’ demands and axe the 44-year-old, instead offering Kean improved terms – a move that is looking ever more likely to backfire come the end of the season.

Such a fate was recently suffered by Newcastle, with relegation a product of a series of poor managerial appointments and dismissals that venture further back than Mike Ashley’s recent hiring and firings. Yet it was the club owner’s decision to sack Sam Allardyce and install fan favourite Kevin Keegan in January 2010 that proved the catalyst for the Magpies' demise. With the ex-Bolton boss guiding Newcastle to a steady mid-table showing amid a period of transition, Ashley took heed of growing supporter frustration and axed the 57-year-old.

Keegan could only average 1.06 points per game compared to Allardyce’s 1.24, while defensive statistics diminished but did not give way to any attacking improvement. ‘King Kev’ duly departed the following season, as Newcastle’s turmoil resulted in relegation.

In 2007, Derby County’s decision to part ways with Billy Davies by mutual consent may have been overdue with the Rams sat at the foot of the table with just six points after 14 games, but the board’s appointment of Paul Jewell gave way to an even worse run of results, as the club finished with a record-low points total of 11.

Then there is the ‘how-not-to’ guide by Avram Grant. Admittedly the Israeli was a post's width away from securing the Champions League title with Chelsea, but his exploits elsewhere have proved far more damaging. After acquiring the Portsmouth hot-seat from Paul Hart with the club seven points from safety in November 2009, Grant was unable to prevent a return to the Championship for the south-coast outfit.

That did not stop West Ham handing the 56-year-old a chance to make amends, but for the second season in a row Grant led his side to relegation. No doubt club owners David Gold and David Sullivan will regret their decision not to follow through with a prospective move in January of last year for Martin O’Neill, who eventually called time on the Upton Park club due to their conduct in negotiations.

Perhaps most telling of all is the fact that the four clubs who staved off relegation last season – Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan & Wolves – all rewarded their current managers with another bite at the apple, but once again find themselves facing a fight for survival as they occupy four of the Premier League’s bottom five places. Fellow strugglers QPR have already faced up to their reality.

Mid-season managerial changes should not always be condemned as snap decisions, with the months of December and January arguably a convenient crossroads between giving a manager enough time to turn things around, and allowing an alternative the chance to stamp his authority and bring about an improvement.

Whilst the increase of 0.25 points per game that is averagely acquired by a shake-up in the coaching staff may seem insignificant as a stand-alone statistic, when put into the context of 18 games and a second-half of the season to fight for, an improved total of 4.5 points overall could very well be the difference between survival and relegation.