Asian Debate: Will A Good African Showing In 2010 Damage Asia?

Sepp Blatter is well-liked in Africa. This fact is not surprising as he made it a personal mission to bring the World Cup to the continent for the first time.

I have spent the last three weeks in South Africa watching the Confederations Cup and numerous times have I seen the man himself interviewed on television.

These talks always go the same way. Blatter is told by a very friendly broadcaster that he is  ‘virtually African’ and then the world football chief makes some remark along the lines of that it is nice to be popular somewhere in the world and everyone laughs.

But Asia will not have found the remarks that he made earlier this week very amusing.

"It will not be easy for an African team to win the World Cup because of the law of averages," said Blatter.

"To add more African teams will depend on the results of the African teams.

"Next year they will have the advantage of playing at home in the ambience we have here …Let's see what will happen next year. I will advocate for Africa, or another continent, when there are doing well in the World Cup."

With six African teams next year doing battle with the world’s best on home soil, there is potential for progress. There’s nothing wrong with home advantage – we are still waiting for a European team to win the trophy outside Europe and Asia’s best performance came in 2002 when the global footballfest came to Asia.  

But if one continent is to receive more slots in the future then another will lose out and Asia is the most vulnerable to African inroads. Talking to FIFA officials about this and all you get is a ‘let’s wait and see’ but Asia needs a good 2010 World Cup.  

Europe may have 13 spots but ten out of the last 16 and all of the last four at the 2006 World Cup all hailed from that continent and South America boasts nine triumphs and constant challenges. CONCAFAF has 3.5 spots, one less than Asia, and often sends a team into the knockout stages, and in the just-concluded Confederations Cup, that region’s representative, the United States, did an awful lot better than Iraq.  Asia has 4.5 spots and needs a good 2010 to keep that allotment.

Bad Memories Of Germany

There is pressure. 2002 may have been the best-ever but 2006 was a big disappointment. Three of the teams sent to Germany had a dismal time. Japan, Saudi Arabia and Iran collected one point each. Only South Korea managed to win a game and with four points, ended up as the 17th best-performing team. Unfortunately, only the top 16 went through.  

Something similar in South Africa and a good African showing will put serious pressure on Asia’s representation.

Only four times in history have Asian teams progressed past the group stage. North Korea famously made the last eight in 1966, Saudi Arabia went to the second round in 1994, Japan did the same in 2002 while at the same time South Korea recorded Asia’s best performance to date in reaching the semi-finals. 

Three of those will be in action in South Africa. Saudi Arabia have a good chance to make it four as the Green Falcons are favourites to defeat first Bahrain and then New Zealand to take Asia’s half spot. And this time we also have Australia who reached the last 16 in 2006 but as a qualifier from Oceania. 

Two From Five Will Do

Assuming that there are five from Asia pitting their wits against the best in the world next summer, at least two need to reach the last 16. More would be fantastic and less would be dangerous especially if African teams perform well. 

I have been at the last four World Cups and despite what people may say, Asian fans usually want other Asian teams to succeed, with certain reservations of course.

For the good of the continent, Japan should cheer on fierce rivals South Korea, Iran, not present in 2010 but certainly eyeing 2014, should try to bring themselves to shout for Bahrain or Saudi Arabia. 

Because next year, Asian success really will help Asian football.

John Duerden

Asian Editor In Johnannesburg

john.duerden@goal.com