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Despite being let down by the statistical approach to betting last weekend, Simon Pilkington has lined up another Premier League goals double at 13/10

Stats - they can be your best friend or worst enemy sometimes, can’t they?

The QPR - Tottenham match last weekend was a shoe-in for both teams to score in my opinion last week and the stats backed me up with 70 per cent of QPR's home games and 100% of Spurs’ away games having seen both teams scoring.

But betting is a funny old pastime with people sometimes pulling off the biggest wins with no preparation at all, punting blindly and wildly and landing winners along the way, whilst others toil away, trawling through all the latest stats in order to find the bet that stands out, all for no return.
 
Despite losing out last week, I just can’t abandon the method behind the betting process so will be sticking to stat-based punts again this week.
 
Whilst the betting disappointed, the football kind of just spluttered it's way through the weekend with both of the ‘Super Sunday’ games not really kicking into life.

Liverpool threatened Manchester United very rarely and looked scared throughout the first half, whilst the red cards in the Arsenal v Manchester City game killed it off pretty quickly and despite a decent start, it fizzled out without much entertainment along the way.
 
This weekend throws up a few interesting games; a midlands derby between West Brom and Aston Villa, a London derby between West Ham and QPR and then the double on Sunday with Chelsea hosting Arsenal and Spurs hosting Manchester United.

However, the games and bets I am going to focus on are over 2.5 goals in the Manchester City vs Fulham game and both teams to score in the Southampton vs Everton match. I shall have them in a double worth 13/10 (2.33) with Paddy Power.

Manchester City v Fulham: Over 2.5 goals

A huge 64% of Manchester City’s home games have seen over 2.5 goals so far this season, whilst Fulham’s away fixtures have seen a mighty 82% with over 2.5 goals.

Just as importantly, in the head-to-heads, eight out of the last 10 games that these two have played have seen over 2.5 goals and with City chasing down Utd for the title and Fulham defensively poor, there could be plenty of goals.

Southampton v Everton: Both Teams to Score

Southampton and Everton play on Monday evening and whilst the Saints has the attacking options to score goals, they also concede plenty – their match against Chelsea on Wednesday is proof enough of that.

At home, 64% of Southampton’s games have seen both teams score whilst of Everton’s away matches, 82% have seen both teams get on the score sheet. In the head-to-head, four of the last six games between these two have seen both teams score.

Everton have continued to play well throughout the season and are in a great position to secure European football for next year, whilst Southampton will be eager to get more points on the board to survive their first campaign back in the Premier League.

At 13/10 (2.33), there’s enough value for me in the double and I shall have £25 of my bankroll on this.

 
Diary of a Punter: Simon's Selections this week
Balance at the start of the week: £361.30
Profit for the season: -£139.70
Double: Manchester City v Fulham (Over 2.5 goals) and Southampton v Everton (Both Teams to Score): £25 at 13/10 (2.33) with Paddy Power
Total staked this week: £25

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Simon Pilkington is a sports writer, an avid supporter of Liverpool and has been betting on sports for the past 13 years. Follow Simon on

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