Pete Norsted has analysed the stats and has two tips for the Premier League action including a low scoring game between Everton and Manchester United on Monday
Everton are traditionally slow starters, however, motivation should not be an issue here and David Moyes' side, who effectively derailed Manchester United's title hope last year, do have a very reasonable recent home record when facing teams of United's stature which reads won six, drawn one, lost three.
Although Manchester United won the corresponding fixture last season I just feel they are priced too low at 10/11 (1.91).
When it comes to goals, at first glance there are some mixed stats but on closer inspection we see that last season 12 of Everton's home games finished with two goals or less and also all five of Everton's home games against teams of United's stature have finished with Under 2.5 goals.
As have six of Manchester United's last nine away to teams of Everton's grading. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365 and that looks a reasonable bet.
However, with regards to this match I have unearthed an incredible stat which could certainly be utilised in-play.
When playing teams of Manchester United's grade Everton have not lost the second half in their last 11 home games. The results for the second half result read: won six, drawn five, lost none. In the case of Manchester United, their second half form away to teams of the Toffees' grade reads won one, drawn eight and lost one.
Looking at these stats if Manchester United are to win this game they should look to do it in the first half. Otherwise the 6/4 (2.50) on offer for the second half draw looks very tempting.
Elsewhere, newly-promoted Reading open their campaign by taking on a Stoke side that tend to struggle away from home and when facing teams of Reading's grade their record reads won two, drawn three, lost five.
Brian McDermott’s side will be keen to get off to a good start and this game could present the ideal opportunity for a side that had won 12 of their last 14 home matches in the Championship.
It would be naive to completely write off Stoke's chances and they will certainly come well prepared but the 69/50 (2.38) offered on the Royals to win by Bet365 certainly offers good value.
Personally, I would look to be a little more cautious and back Reading -0.25 goals at 21/20 (2.05) on the Asian Handicap. This means should the game end a draw then you receive half of your stake back.
Please remember that this is the start of a long season and teams are yet to find their form, be extra vigilant before placing your bets as there will be plenty of very good betting opportunities as the season develops.
|Reading -0.25 goals (Asain Handicap) at 21/20 (2.05) with Bet365
||Under 2.5 goals (Everton v Manchester United) at 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365|
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