Phil Kitromilides believes there is value in backing plenty of goals and a win for the Hoops against a side struggling at the bottom of the tableAs the most successful club in the history of Irish football and current champions, Shamrock Rovers will feel their league position of fourth is simply not good enough.
One win in their last four matches has not helped their quest to retain their title, yet Rovers will be confident of picking up three points at a struggling Dundalk side who have lost each of their last four home matches and parted company with their manager on Thursday.
Understandably Rovers are pretty short priced favourites, with William Hill offering odds of 4/9 (1.44) on an away win. Dundalk, meanwhile, are available at 11/2 (6.50) to pull off the victory which would be a major shock, while the draw can be backed at 16/5 (4.20).
While an away win looks extremely likely, the odds are just slightly too short to consider for serious investment.
Instead, consider backing Shamrock Rovers to win and over 2.5 goals to be scored, which is offered an attractive price of 11/10 (2.10).
Goals look almost certain, with four out of Dundalk's last five matches seeing at least three goals, and five out of Shamrock's last seven league games going over 2.5.
Backing over 2.5 goals at 4/6 (1.67) might tempt some customers, but there is real value to be had in combing that bet with win for Rovers.
Shamrock thrashed Dundalk 6-0 earlier in the season, and this fixture is traditionally a high scoring one - seven of the last eight meetings have all seen over 2.5 goals.
A high-scoring win for the champions against a struggling side at the bottom of the table looks extremely likely and the price of 11/10 (2.10) is too good to turn down.
For some slightly higher odds, trying backing Shamrock Rovers -2 at 16/5 (4.20). If a high-scoring away win looks probable, then this could prove a shrewd investment of a small value bet.
|Shamrock Rovers to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/10 (2.10) with William Hill
||Shamrock Rovers -2 at 16/5 (4.20) with William Hill|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports broadcaster working on radio and TV in London and Madrid. You can also follow Phil on Twitter.