Fulham meet Derby County in the Championship’s Saturday teatime kick-off, with the two teams experiencing contrasting fortunes.
The Cottagers, who languish in 17th, look a more pedestrian side than the one that lit up the division last term and have amassed just one point from their last four outings.
On the other hand, the visitors are one of the league’s form sides with four wins in six despite losing 4-2 to Reading before the international break, with manager Gary Rowett critical of the performance.
Fulham, whose chances might improve if key playmaker Tom Cairney returns to fitness, are 23/20 (2.15) with bet365 to inflict back-to-back defeats on the East Midlanders.
There could be value in combining the last two bets through the double chance of a draw or Derby win at 8/11 (1.73), as those odds imply a probability of 57.9%, even though Fulham have won only one in eight at home and the away side have lost just two in eight on the road.
A Rams victory with under 2.5 goals is as big as 13/2 (7.5), which indicates a probability of 13.3%, but that eventuality - or Fulham losing in the same manner - has occurred in a staggering 40% of games involving either side post-September.
Derby have triumphed without conceding in 27% of their games and are 5/1 (6.0) for another win to nil, or 10/3 (4.33) for a sixth clean sheet of the campaign, whilst two of Fulham’s four league wins have finished 2-1 and a repeat is 8/1 (9.0).
However, we see the most value in the 8/11 (1.73) on in-form Derby avoiding defeat in West London by claiming either a win or a draw for the eighth Championship game in their last nine, whilst condemning the Cottagers to a sixth league game without a win.