Promotion hopefuls Derby County host bottom side Sunderland in the Championship on Friday night.
The Black Cats are only five points from safety despite recording just five wins all season, and recent performances don’t offer cause for optimism.
Derby, 5/1 (6.0) to go up this season with dabblebet, have their own issues to address after a seven-match winless run has left their play-off hopes in jeopardy.
The Rams are 4/9 (1.44) to record the victory that would guarantee they keep their place in the top six, at least until Easter Monday.
Derby midfielder Joe Ledley could still be sidelined with a calf problem while striker Sam Winnall is out for the rest of the season with a serious knee injury.
Sunderland’s Jake Clarke-Salter begins a two-match ban after his red card against Preston, and fellow defender Tyias Browning is out for the remainder of the campaign with a groin injury.
Comfortable Derby win
The price on the outright home win is a tad short, but there are other ways of backing the hosts; 10 of Derby’s 16 victories – and seven of their nine home triumphs - have come by a margin of two or more goals.
Equally, 11 of Sunderland’s 20 defeats this season have been by two or more goals, including 3-0 at Sheffield United, 4-0 at Cardiff and 3-1 at Birmingham since Christmas.
The home win with the -1 handicap might therefore appeal at 6/5 (2.2).
Preview and predictions
Derby have won to nil in 32% of their Championship games – a higher percentage than everyone bar the top two – and have conceded just two goals in the 11 home games that have seen them score first.
By contrast, Sunderland have lost without scoring in 34% of their games.
For our best bet therefore, we’re chancing on Derby being the only team to score in this one at odds of 11/10 (2.1).