In the previous three seasons, Burnley have gone out of the League Cup to a lower league side and they are 7/2 (4.5) to do so again in 90 minutes against Leeds, who top the Championship table.
This year the hosts have got to the third round thanks to a 2-0 derby win at rivals Blackburn. They are 17/20 (1.85) for another win in normal time and the game is 14/5 (3.8) to go to extra-time, with the bookies expecting Premier League quality to tell.
However, it is debatable whether Burnley, who rely on the same core group of players in the league, have that quality in reserve. Sean Dyche looks likely to ring the changes again in the cup and there are six players who started at Ewood Park but haven’t yet started in the league.
One of those six is Charlie Taylor, who may get some choice words from visiting fans fans, having refused to play for the club on the final day prior to his move to Turf Moor. Chris Wood’s departure was more amicable and the Championship’s top scorer from last season is 6/4 (2.5) to score anytime against his former club.
Last season, Leeds were heavily reliant on Wood’s clinical finishing, which was often the difference in initially tight encounters. The visitors are harder to predict this year, with 10 different goalscorers in all competitions, which also makes them well equipped for cup football.
Their current top scorer is Samuel Saiz, who averages a goal every 29 minutes in this competition so far and is 7/2 (4.5) to score anytime at Turf Moor. Kemar Roofe, 10/3 (4.33) to score anytime, averages a goal every 30 minutes in the cup after a hat-trick in the 5-1 win over Newport County.
The Whites netted four goals in the second half of that match and three after the break in the 4-1 win over Port Vale in the first round.
Leeds are 5/4 (2.25) to score in the second half against a Burnley side that has the joint-second worst post-interval goal differential record in the Premier League, having conceded four times and scored just once.
The East Lancashire outfit have always been either in a battle to get into the Premier League or a battle to stay up over the past few seasons, leaving little room to focus on cup progress and that is unlikely to change despite a good start. The value therefore is with Leeds, who look motivated to thrive in this competition and have shown plenty of cutting edge in the closing stages of their matches so far.