World Cup 2010 third place play-off betting preview: Uruguay - Germany

It may be a 'dead rubber' but there's still money to be made...

Kick-Off: Saturday, 10 July, 19:30 BST.
Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth Stadium

The World Cup's proverbial 'dead rubber' makes its return after four long years since the last one. Yes folks it's the third/fourth place play off with, ahem, everything still to scrap for if you believe the FIFA hype about the game.

Uruguay are on course to at least emulate their best finish since 1970 when they reached the semi-finals. The two-time champions have been outstanding in the competition, flying the flag for South America in the last four only to lose somewhat harshly to the Netherlands. Bad boy Luis Suarez is expected to return after serving his suspension and will partner Diego Forlan up front with both still outside contenders for the Golden Boot.

Germany's World Cup was brought to an abrupt halt by Spain on Wednesday night. After impressing so much against England and Argentina they were eventually overwhelmed by a resurgent La Furia Roja. After forcing 14 shots on target against their two previous opponents the Nationalmannschaft could only muster two against Spain. Yet it remains a stellar World Cup for Jogi Loew's young charges who will want to emulate their third place finish from four years ago. Miroslav Klose, closing in on Ronaldo's scoring record, may miss out with a back injury.

Uruguay Tips
Luis Suarez has been telling the media that "the World Cup is not over yet. Now we just want to make sure we are among the top three."

The Ajax striker, who has caught the eye of many of Europe's leading clubs, will spearhead the attack of the Celeste once more as he looks to make up for lost time.

* Luis Suarez to score first/anytime - 9.0/3.50

You can't mention Suarez without giving due mention to Diego Forlan. Four cracking goals have elevated the La Liga striker into contention for the Golden Boot. Don't discount him adding another in this game.

* Diego Forlan to score first/anytime - 7.0/2.75

Suarez is the better price and spends more time in the six-yard box than his partner. We know this game will produce goals (see below) so back the number nine at anytime.

Germany Tips
Miroslav Klose needs one goal to equal Ronaldo's record of 15. As this is most likely to be his last ever World Cup game he will surely feature at some stage - bad back or not. Anytime looks the more likely runner considering the state of his fitness.   

* Miroslav Klose to score first/anytime - 5.0/2.0

Joachim Loew certainly missed Thomas Mueller's shooting boots against Spain. The Bayern Munich teenager has a tremendous strike rate with four goals from just four shots on target. Give this youngster a chance and he will punish you.

* Thomas Mueller to score first/anytime - 9.0/3.25

Betting Verdict
The third place play-off almost always delivers a hatful of goals. Players are more relaxed, some want to be on the plane home and there is little to play for despite what FIFA say.

Let's take a look at the scorelines from third place play-offs down the years. You need to go back to 1974 to find a match that didn't have at least three goals.

2006: Germany 3-1 Portugal
2002: South Korea 2-3 Turkey
1998: Netherlands 1-2 Croatia
1994: Sweden 4-0 Bulgaria
1990: Italy 2-1 England
1986: France 4-2 Belgium
1982: Poland 3-2 France
1978: Brazil 2-1 Italy
1974: Brazil 0-1 Poland

If you're wondering who clashed in 1970 it was none other than Saturday night's opponents. West Germany won that match 1-0 but as you can see goals, and lots of 'em, are the norm in this dead rubber.

All things considered the following makes sense if you fancy a bet on the game.

* Both teams to score - 1.83

* Over 2.5 goals - 1.71

For over 2.5, 3 the price is 1.83. If you fancy between 4-6 goals the odds stretch to 1.90 while over six is valued at 3.0.

Germany should win the game but before we depart listen to the words of Uruguay coach Oscar Tabarez.

"We have no assurance that we will win, but we will prepare ourselves to fight to the death."

Uruguay are enticing at 4.78 and are worth a small stake. Be sensible and back over 2.5 goals if you want to make some money on this fixture. 

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Odds correct at time of publication. encourages all readers who bet to do so sensibly.

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