Our man in Spain explains why he believes that the hosts' run of matches decided on thin margins will continue and why the price of 29/20 for under 2.5 goals is unmissable
Four points from their final two games would guarantee them their first title in 18 years and they will be desperate to claim three of those points on Sunday at home to Malaga.
William Hill price them at 1/5 (1.20) to record that much desired victory at the Estadio Vicente Calderon.
While Atletico have their title dreams, Malaga still need a point to be mathematically safe and they will be extremely keen to avoid going into the final day of the season with a chance of being relegated.
The visitors are priced at 12/1 (13.00) while the draw is offered at 11/2 (6.50).
If Atleti do end up winning the title it will not be because of an attacking, flowing style of football.
Diego Simeone's men are relentlessly efficient and extremely adept at grinding out results with nine of their last 10 games seeing under 2.5 goals scored.
Another repeat is offered at an eye-catching 29/20 (2.45), which seems a difficult proposition to turn down.
Atletico are the kind of team who, if they get a lead, defend it fully and, should the hosts go ahead, this bet will have an even better chance of paying out.
Do not expect a pretty encounter as the nerves of being so close to a long-awaited title potentially kick in.
Therefore backing another low-scoring Atletico match looks like the best option, especially at the highly generous price quoted.
|Under 2.5 goals at 29/20 (2.45) 1.5pt stake with William Hill|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports journalist and TV presenter in Madrid