The Brazilians are unbeaten in 54 games at the Estadio Independencia, so will be confident of securing a victory in front of their own fans, at odds of 13/20 (1.65) with William Hill.
Conversely, Gerardo Martino’s men have lost three of their last four on the road, and are understandably 4/1 (5.00) outsiders to end their hosts’ long unbeaten streak.
However, the visitors secured a an ultimately vital 0-0 draw at the home of fellow Argentines Boca Juniors in the quarter finals, and are available at 5/2 (3.50) to grind out a similar result and book themselves a place in the final.
La Lepra will have been absolutely delighted after earning a two-goal cushion in Rosario, as their away record does not inspire much confidence.
With one foot already in the final, Martino can now merely set his side out to frustrate the hosts by not allowing them to find their rhythm, in a repeat of the game plan that was so effective at La Bombonera.
Having kept three clean sheets in a row in this competition, the visitors will be confident of containing a side who have failed to score in four of their last six matches, and odds of 10/11 (1.91) offer excellent value on them keeping the goal tally to under 2.5 in Belo Horizonte.
That bet would have paid out in six of the hosts’ last seven matches, as well as each of the guests’ last four, so should be safe in this one.
While the fixture is unlikely to provide too much goalmouth action, it is hard to see Galo’s attacking line-up of Brazil internationals Ronaldinho, Bernard and Jo being kept at bay for the full 90 minutes, and a slender home win seems like the most realistic outcome.
With this in mind, odds of 5/2 (3.50) are not to be missed on Cuca’s men coming out on top in a match featuring under 2.5 goals, with the plucky Argentines holding out for extra-time at least.
|Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill
||Atletico Mineiro to win and under 2.5 goals at 5/2 (4.50) with William Hill
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Al Hain-Cole is a Liverpool fan, experienced tipster and avid follower of European football. He specialises in accumulators and if you would like to read more from Al you can follow him on Twitter here.
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