While it is true the Catalans have in recent weeks lacked a little incisiveness in front of goal, progression this evening would soon banish all negative talk.
Barca are priced at 1/3 (1.33) to win and most expect them to do so, yet the problem for Jordi Roura's side is that, trailing as they are 2-0 from the first leg, they almost certainly need to win while keeping a clean sheet.
The blaugrana can be backed at 6/5 (2.20) not to concede a goal yet that bet does not appeal, given that Barca have only kept one clean sheet in their last 14 matches, and that was against bottom of the table Deportivo.
Milan for their part are offered at 8/1 (9.00) for the win but just 13/20 (1.65) to qualify, and that second price can be largely attributed to the fact that most people think the Rossoneri will score this evening, which would leave Barca needing to net four times.
With Barca's defence going through a patch rockier than a North American mountain range, and Milan finding the back of the net in each of their last nine matches, the price of 8/11 (1.72) for both teams to score this evening looks extremely tempting.
This bet has paid out in 12 of the Catalans' last 14 games and in nine of Milan's previous 12 away matches and should have an excellent chance of doing so again tonight.
If Milan look like scoring then, their best chance of a goal will be Stephan El Shaarawy and the price of 12/5 (3.40) for the talented forward to add to his total of 19 goals this season is well worth considering for a value bet.
|Both teams to score at 8/11 (1.72) with Bet365
||Stephan El Shaarawy to score at any time at 12/5 (3.40) with Bet365|
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Phil Kitromilides is a sports anchor working on TV in Madrid. You can also follow Phil on Twitter.