Diary of a Punter: Why Swansea should get the better of Aston Villa on Saturday

The international break did not go to plan for Simon, but he is back with two picks from the weekend's action, including a sizeable bet on Michael Laudrup's side
Oh great god of gambling; I know I gave the international break some stick last week for being a bad betting opportunity but you didn’t have to punish me that badly did you? Moving down to League One and Two was definitely the right idea but, the bets just didn’t drop into place, leaving me £30 down for the week.

Whilst I got close with the Torquay bet, the Swindon result was a big shock; their opponents, Leyton Orient had only scored once all season and were yet to get a point but, of course, beat Swindon 1-0 away from home. So sometimes, all the best thought process and research in the world won’t win you a bet, it just won't be your day.

"Sometimes, all the best thought process and research in the world won’t win you a bet, it just won't be your day"

- Simon on the fickle world of football betting

It wasn’t just me not winning though, as there was no winner of our weekly £20 free bet from Paddy Power. Not one of the entrants managed to pick a winning tip so make sure you enter this week in order to have a shout at taking the prize. Full details on how to enter are below.

Onwards and upwards though and I’m determined to get things back on track this week. First up for me is a look at the Aston Villa vs Swansea match at Villa Park.

Villa, despite a well-deserved point against Newcastle last time out, have been indifferent at best, losing to both West Ham and Everton, while Swansea have started off extremely strongly with huge wins against QPR and West Ham and a solid draw against Sunderland.

The Swans won this fixture last year and I feel they will be too fluid for a labouring Villa side and I don’t believe the bookmakers’ have got the measure of the Welsh side just yet.

Whilst they’re available at 12/5 (3.40) in places for the outright victory, I’m going to play it cautious and take up Paddy Power’s 5/4 (2.25) on the Swansea "Draw No Bet" market. Therefore if it finishes a draw, I’ll get my cash back. £20 goes on this for me.

My second bet of the day comes in the Cardiff vs Leeds game in the Championship. Both clubs are sitting with seven points so far after four games played and both have a +1 goal difference.

Last season this fixture ended up 1-1, as did the return fixture at Elland Road and whilst I’m not going to chance the exact same scoreline (although you could get 6/1 currently with Paddy Power), I am going to go for the draw at 23/10 (3.30) with Paddy Power. £10 of my bankroll will go onto this.

Hopefully we will get ourselves back on track this week but wherever you are, make sure you enjoy the football and the best of luck with all your bets this weekend!

Plus, don't forget that we've got a £20 free bet to give away each week thanks to Paddy Power. To win just email your best tip for the weekend with the word "Winpaddy" in the subject line.

Be it a well-priced single, an ambitious multiple or any other bet available in all of Paddy Power's football markets around the world for games taking place from 15th-17th September. Last week there was no winner; surely you can find a winning tip!

Just send in your selection, the price available at Paddy Power, and include "Winpaddy" in the subject line to betting@goal.com before midday on Saturday to enter. Good luck!

Diary of a Punter: Simon's Selections this week
Balance at the start of the week: £464.50
Profit on the season: -£35.50
Swansea "Draw no Bet" v Aston Villa at 5/4 (2.25) with Paddy Power
Cardiff v Leeds - Draw at 23/10 (3.30) with Paddy Power
Total staked this week: £30

Sign up with Paddy Power for up to £250 in free bets

Simon Pilkington is a sports writer, an avid supporter of Liverpool FC and has been betting on sports for the past 13 years. Follow Simon on

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