The Ethniki upset the odds just to reach this stage after a shock win over Russia last time out. Adam Bate expects another spirited display but sees the Nationalelf getting the win
Of course, that’s just how the Greeks like it. Russia took them for granted in the final group game and it cost them dear as Fernando Santos’ side clawed off the bottom of the table to qualify from Group A.
Giorgos Karagounis – their captain and goalscorer against the Russians – is suspended for this one and that will only strengthen their resolve that another backs-to-the-wall effort is required here.
Greece are a whopping 9/1 (10.0) with William Hill to win the game in 90 minutes and 4/1 (5.0) to find a way to get to the semi-finals.
Those prices reflect not only Greece’s limitations but the serene progress Germany have made thus far. Three wins from three games in the so-called Group of Death tells you plenty.
Joachim Low has key players in form and fantastic options on the bench.
As a result, Germany are 1/3 (1.33) and 1/7 (1.14) to qualify with William Hill. The draw is available at 19/5 (5.8).
In the goalscorer markets, it doesn’t require much insight to back Mario Gomez but that doesn’t make it wrong. Indeed, the predictability of his goalscoring can be a punter’s friend.
Gomez netted the opener in each of Germany’s first two games and with Low’s side expected to be dominating this one, expect him to have opportunities once more here. The Bayern Munich frontman is a 3/1 (4.0) shot with William Hill to open the scoring against Greece.
Greece’s best hope will be to delay that for as long as possible and the price of 2/1 (3.0) for this game to be goalless at the interval may interest some. It’s a real possibility and Low is unlikely to panic given his options on the bench.
For the value bet, the real value in this game could be in picking draw/Germany at HT/FT at 16/5 (4.2) with William Hill. Portugal showed last night that the ability to continue to create chances after the break can eventually pay off and this bet looks to offer another very good return.
But for the pick of the bets in this one, take a look at the relative disciplinary records of the two teams involved.
Greece picked up seven bookings before the 61 minute mark in their opening three matches. In contrast, Germany received just three yellow cards in all and only one during the first hour of games.
With this in mind, and given the likelihood Greece will be the ones defending for their Euro 2012 lives, tip them to be the first team booked at 4/9 (1.44) with William Hill.
|Greece first team booked at 4/9 (1.44) with William Hill
||Draw/Germany at HT/FT at 16/5 (4.2) with William Hill
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Adam Bate is a professional freelance journalist who specialises in football and betting. He is editor of GhostGoal which can be found here - you can also follow Adam on
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