The Robins finished higher in the league but the Railwaymen are the form team. Adam Bate is anticipating goals when the two sides tussle for promotion on Sunday afternoonCheltenham Town finished five points ahead of Crewe Alexandra in the regular season and head into this League Two play-off final at Wembley after beating Torquay United in both legs of their semi-final.
And yet, the Robins are underdogs to earn promotion to the third tier of English football.
That owes something to their disappointing finish to the season in which they lost seven of their last 12 league games.
But Mark Yates’ men appear to have found some form since then. They can be backed at 9/5 (2.8) to win this game in 90 minutes and are Evens (2.0) with Sportingbet to win promotion.
Crewe are the narrow favourites and that reflects the fact they won both of the league games against Cheltenham as well as their eye-catching form going into this clash.
The Railwaymen completed the league season with a 16-game unbeaten run before overcoming Southend in their semi-final matches.
Those games had real contrast in styles, with Steve Davis’ young Crewe side playing some impressive passing football. Wembley’s open spaces should suit them.
Crewe are 29/20 (2.45) with Sportingbet to win the match in normal time and an 8/11 (1.73) pick for promotion.
A draw after 90 minutes is available at 9/4 (3.25) and that is not a particularly unlikely outcome given Crewe’s tendency to end games on level terms.
Six of their last 14 matches in the league ended 1-1, while three of their last six games have finished 2-2.
The 1-1 scoreline is available at 5/1 (6.0) but, for real value given the tiring legs at Wembley, the long-shot pick has to be the 14/1 (15.0) on offer with Sportingbet for a 2-2 draw.
That’s the value bet but for the best bet in this one then factor in Crewe’s habit of seeing goals go in at both ends of the league campaign.
The Chesire-based club have scored in every game of their lengthy unbeaten run but still conceded in 36 of their 48 league games this season (including the play-off semi-final matches).
On an occasion where both sides will be leaving nothing out there on the pitch, back both teams to score at 7/10 (1.7) with Sportingbet.
|Both teams to score at 7/10 (1.70) with Sportingbet
||2-2 draw at 14/1 (15.00) with Sportingbet
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Adam Bate is a professional freelance journalist who specialises in football and betting. He is editor of GhostGoal which can be found here - you can also follow Adam on
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