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Neither Chelsea nor Napoli have been in the best of form in the last few weeks but Adam Bate is backing the home side to take a first-leg lead at 13/10

As the storm clouds gather over Andre Villas-Boas, he must prepare his Chelsea side for arguably their biggest game of the season as the Blues visit Napoli in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie.

Villas-Boas’ side are currently on a run of four wins from 13 games and with strong rumours of discontent within the Stamford Bridge squad, a win in Italy looks a tough ask. Chelsea are 11/5 (3.2) with Paddy Power to win the away leg.

Walter Mazzarri’s Napoli have also come through a difficult time as they endured a run of five games without a win in Serie A last month. But the Italian side have come through that spell to grab back-to-back wins against Chievo and Fiorentina.

They appear to be coming back into form at just the right time and, unlike Chelsea, there can be no doubt that the Champions League has remained Napoli’s number one focus throughout this season. They are slight 13/10 (2.3) favourites with Paddy Power. The draw is available at 13/10 (2.3).

Edinson Cavani unsurprisingly dominates the goalscorer betting. Cavani already has 19 goals this season and has a habit of delivering on the big occasion.

The Uruguayan forward has scored 13 goals in his last 15 games including two in his last outing and is 11/2 (6.5) joint-favourite with Didier Drogba to grab the opener on Tuesday. The smart money is on Cavani at that price and that’s the value bet in this one.

In the other markets, it is wise to remember Napoli’s habit of making strong starts and bear in mind the fact that it will be a special atmosphere in Naples.

Napoli’s tally of 15 goals at home before the interval is more than any top flight Italian side and Chelsea must be wary of the their lightning fast front line. Given that all is not well in the Blues camp, backing Napoli to lead at half-time and hold onto the lead could be profitable at 11/4 (3.75) with Paddy Power.

Bet of the Day

Napoli to win - 13/10 with Paddy Power
Edison Cavani to score first at 11/2 (6.50) with Paddy Power

Adam Bate is a professional freelance journalist who specialises in football and betting. He is editor of GhostGoal which can be found here - you can also follow Adam on Twitter