Pete Nordsted's betting tips: Why backing Liverpool for the FA Cup could pay dividends by Sunday
Pete examines how Kenny Dalglish's side could be good value in the outright FA Cup betting and why he's backing Birmingham to triumph over Wolves in the early kick-off on Saturday
4 Jan 2012 18:01:00
By Pete Nordsted
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This weekend sees the end of an extremely hectic festive period as the FA Cup takes over with the traditional first Saturday of the New Year third round ties.In truth, the FA Cup is not really something that I look to bet on as much can depend on line-ups. However, this year I thought I would take a different approach to this tournament and see if I could profit from the betting markets available on the prestigious competition.
This weekend I will be betting on Liverpool to win the FA Cup which is currently priced at 9/1 (10.00) with SportingBet. However, I will be placing my bet only when I am sure that they have made it through to the fourth round after playing Oldham on Friday evening. Now, should Liverpool be beating the League One side comfortably on Friday evening, I shall back them to win the FA Cup during the game.
The idea of this is very simple, with Liverpool safely through to the fourth round I will be hoping that there is a positive result during the Manchester derby and that either Chelsea, Arsenal or both suffer an upset or are taken to a replay at Portsmouth or Leeds respectively. Should there be a shock and Chelsea and Arsenal leave the competition and one of the Manchester sides are also eliminated, then Liverpool's odds could shorten dramatically leaving me with a fairly risk free bet/trade where the upside is far greater than the downside.
It may well be unlikely that either the Gunners or the Blues will lose. However, these days a Champions League spot is held in much higher regard than FA Cup glory and you can see both of the London giants rotating their squads for these matches and probably fielding under strength sides and possibly underestimating their opposition.
The only real downside to all this, is on Sunday afternoon Liverpool could be drawn away to face one of the major clubs but that is a risk I am prepared to take. Should Liverpool get a relatively easy tie then I will assess my position from there.As for this weekend's ties, although Wolves are facing Birmingham in a West Midlands derby, I can see Mick McCarthy rotating his squad here and resting some key players after the festive period as they have a vital league fixture at Spurs the following Saturday.
The game should still be an exciting fixture but I am going to be placing my money on Birmingham to win at 7/5 (2.4) with SportingBet.
Pete's Weekend Tip
Birmingham to beat Wolves at 7/5 (2.4) with SportingBet
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