The first leg of the AC Milan and Atletico Madrid round of 16 games will go down in Italy and the Spanish side is favoured to defeat the seven-time European champions.
Tied atop the Spanish table alongside Barcelona and rival Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid finds itself in unfamiliar terrirtory as the favourite heading into Wednesday's first leg against AC Milan.
The capital city side is listed right now at 2.20 to win outright over at William Hill. Though the Spaniards are coming off a 3-0 league win on Saturday over Valladolid, they dropped three straight decisions in a pair of Cup ties along with a league loss to Real.
The Cup losses are perhaps understandable as the team looks to preserve its energy for the Champions League, and it went undefeated during the group stage with a strong 5-0-1 mark. In addition, Atletico finished tied for the best defensive record of all teams, with only three goals conceded from those matches.
For some larger value, consider a Diego Costa strike coupled with the Atletico win; which can be had at 4.50. He has four goals in three Champions League matches and sits behind Cristiano Ronaldo in second place in the La Liga scoring race with 21 strikes.
I like the visitors to take this opening leg given Milan's injuries to key men Robinho and Stephen El Shaarawy, while both Muntari and Montolivo are out due to suspension.
The draw is currently offered at 3.00, and I'd normally like this given AC Milan's experience in these situations. However, the depleted starting XI simply can't be ignored and neither can the team's inconsistent play all season. This is evidenced by Milan current ninth place spot in Serie A, and compounded by the fact that new manager Clarence Seedorf is still getting his feet wet with the squad.
The draw/draw result brings that value up to 4.40, while the both teams to score pick is at 4.20 but the visiting win still appeals the most.
The hosts to win outright are at 3.60, while to qualify they can be taken at 3.00. They beat Bologna on Friday in league play and are 4-1-4 (W-L-T) in their last nine games at the San Siro, and they went 1-0-2 during the group stage.