La Liga's lone game on Friday features two mid-table clubs as Granada hosts Celta Vigo at 3pm EST. The hosts have really struggled at home, which teases a low total goals result.
Despite sitting in 11th spot in the La Liga table, Granada needs to find a way to play better at home.
The hosts' 3-7-1 (W-L-T) record is the third worst in the league, as is their dismal goal production which has seen them only generate under a goal-per-game average this season.
They come into Friday's tilt with Celta Vigo as 2.10 favourites over at British betting firm William Hill, and 3.40 in the double result. They are 1-4-1 in their last six matches in all competitions, though they were able to avoid being destroyed at the Bernabeu last week when they lost 2-0 to Real Madrid. What works in their favour is that they are undefeated in their last three matches at home against Celta, with a pair of wins and a draw to show for it.
A draw result can be had at 3.25 and offers value in the 1x2 section based on the low production of both sides, particuarly when they play each other. It's important to note that Celta has yet to draw in 10 away matches this season, and La Liga is a league in which draw results occur the least in that outright sector. It will leave some very wary for the pick, and if you're one of them then look at the tie with a Celta Vigo +1 in the handicap -- which pays 3.75.
A Celta Vigo victory is listed at 3.60, which is a bit larger than expected given Granada's home struggles. The visitors haven't done much better on the road, evidenced by their 3-7-0 record while away from Estadio Balaídos. But a win would see them leapfrog Granada in the standings and would put them into a tie for 10th with Valencia.
Os Celestes are coming off a 4-2 home win over basement-dweller Real Betis, and they've averaged 1.4 goals scored in their 10 away games.
Given that matches featuring Granada this year have produced a lacklustre 2.20 total goals on average, the bookies are expecting an under 2.5 to crack. That is offered at 1.65, not the best value out there.
Instead, I prefer the both teams to score pick at 1.91 in a 50/50 market, while the 1-1 draw in the correct score pick is listed at 7.00 if you are looking for a low wager/high output pick.