Aston Villa has lost four straight and is hosting a futile Swansea side only one point ahead in the table, which makes the draw markets attractive for Saturday's match.
Swansea comes into Saturday's match with a road record of 3-5-1 (W-L-T), but is facing an Aston Villa side that has been awful over the last month, having lost four straight league matches.
The visitors are listed by British firm William Hill at odds of 2.62 to take full points away from Villa Park. They haven't done so well, with eight losses in their last nine trips there, and the were shutout in all of those losses. The Swans performed well away to Chelsea on Thursday in a 1-0 loss, but with only seven goals from nine road games this year, there isn't enough bite in the numbers to justify the away win.
The draw initially looks risky with Swansea having only a single draw from its nine away matches, while Villa has drawn once at home in its nine on the road. But at 3.10 for the outright and an even better at 4.50 for the double result, the tie results looks better when you consider the desperation of both teams, their one-point separation in the table, and their futility in scoring.
Add striker Christian Benteke's injury to the mix and I don't expect Villa to produce much up front, where the club has been brutal at home, scoring a horrible 0.67 goals per game. The Villains also been shutout three of the last four matches, and their overall home record is a league worst 2-6-1. Which is why the hosts are available now as slight underdogs for the win at 2.80.
Don't touch the over 2.5 total goals here, even though it is at a nice 2.10. Though Villa will attempt to come out firing and ease the mounting pressure from fans with at least a point, I just don't expect to see a lot of firepower emerging from either side in this one.
For a correct score pick, the hedging of a 0-0 bore draw and a 1-1 at 9.50 and 6.50 offers some value with such a distinct lack of scoring from both clubs.