A berth in the Champions League is on the line when PSV visits Milan on Wednesday with a 2:45pm EDT kickoff. Milan was outplayed in the first leg but is heavily favoured at home.
The biggest shock from Europe this past weekend was undoubtedly Milan's 2-1 loss in its season opener against newly promoted Verona. Milan simply played badly and will need a significantly better performance against a PSV side that was the better side during their first leg in Holland.
Milan is listed by bookies at odds of 1.61 to win outright here and 2.45 to win in the halftime/fulltime sector. If Milan holds a clean sheet it will advance based on away goals, but I don't expect the Serie A side to merely sit back and play the defensive card. I do expect a win for the Italians given the magnitude of the game, combined with Mario Balotelli and Stephen El Shaarawy's tendencies to turn it up in the big matches.
Balotelli is listed at 1.91 to score during the game and 4.50 to score first. He scored the lone Milan goal on the weekend. El Shaarawy was the man to score in the first leg, and to score at any time in this match he is issued at 2.20 and 5.50 to open it up. Hedging the opening goal bet with both players is not a bad idea at all.
The draw is being offered at a chunky 3.80, while the PSV win is coming in large at 5.50. The Dutch side has a trio of wins and a draw in the domestic league but has never won at the San Siro before. If Milan fails to advance, Massimiliano Allegri's job could very well be on the line so I expect Milan to edge out the visitors.
Second leg games typically hit the over but with Milan merely needing to hold off PSV from scoring as opposed to having to go all out, the under here at 2.15 could be of good value in the over/under market.