Betting round-up: Victory good value to upset Roar

Betting expert Paul Gough is tipping Melbourne Victory to upset nemesis Brisbane Roar in coach Ange Postecoglou's last game in charge

Melbourne Victory look to have plenty in their favour as they attempt to end an eight-match winless streak against Brisbane Roar when Round 3 of the A-League gets underway on Friday night.

The Roar might be the only team with the perfect record after two rounds this season while in contrast Victory have only managed to draw their opening two matches so far but Brisbane can expect to face a fired-up Melbourne at Etihad Stadium on Friday night.

That is because the match will be the last in charge of Victory for their popular manager Ange Postecoglou, who will quit his post after Friday night's game to take charge of the national team.

If that doesn't make the Roar's task of upsetting the farewell A-League  game for the man that led them to the 2011 and 2012 A-League championships tough enough, they will also travel to Melbourne without star striker Besart Berisha.

The 2011-12 A-League Golden Boot winner is out with a hamstring injury yet the Roar have still been well supported by punters - firming from $2.50 into $2.45 with bet365 compared to Victory at $2.70 while the draw has eased from $3.40 to $3.50.

Brisbane's impressive start to the season has also seen the Roar move into equal $5.50 second favourites to win the A-League grand final this season - along with defending champions Central Coast - and behind only last season's minor premiers Western Sydney at $5.

Victory are on the fourth line of betting at $6 ahead of Sydney FC and Adelaide at $9 with Melbourne Heart ($15), Wellington and Perth (both $17) and Newcastle ($26) the teams being tipped not to make the top six.

However Victory have not beaten the Roar since September, 2010 with the last eight meetings resulting in four wins for Brisbane and four draws.

But with a huge home crowd likely to pack Docklands for Postecoglou's farewell, we fancy Victory to rise to the occasion and a 2-1 win for the home side looks great value at $10 in correct score betting.

And given his love of the big occasion, Victory's veteran striker Archie Thompson is also worth a punt at $3 to score at any stage of the match.

The big clash on Saturday is the Sydney derby with Sydney FC hosting the Wanderers at Allianz Stadium.

The two teams split their meetings at one win apiece and one draw last season but while the Wanderers have drawn both their games so far this season, Sydney are coming off a 4-0 hammering in Brisbane last week.

And the Sky Blues are expected to be without their star man Alessandro Del Piero due to a calf strain.

As a result the Wanderers are set to go in warm favourites away from home at $1.80 at bet365 compared to the home side at $4.33 with the draw paying $3.60 and should win.


Back Central Coast, Wellington and Western Sydney to win

Victory are good value to upset Brisbane and take Heart in the draw no bet market against Perth

In the other game on Saturday Central Coast are also short at $1.75 at home to Adelaide at $4.75, with the draw paying $3.60, with the Reds having failed to beat the Mariners in their past 11 meetings.

On Sunday the Wellington Phoenix have been backed in from $1.95 into $1.83 to record their first win of the season for new manager Ernie Merrick ‑ when they host struggling Newcastle in Napier, with the Jets easing from $3.60 out to $4.20.

And in the final game a Melbourne Heart side showing signs of improvement - having held big guns Melbourne Victory and Central Coast to draws in the opening two matches - look good value away to likely strugglers Perth.

The Glory, who could only draw with wooden spoon favourites Newcastle last week, are paying $2.00 compared to the Heart at $3.60 and the draw at $3.50.

But the Heart look tempting in the draw no bet market at odds of $2.62 at bet365 - where punters get their money back if the game ends in a draw - despite their poor away form last season.

*Note prices subject to change

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